Autonomous car
Junior, a robotic Volkswagen Passat, at Stanford University in October 2009.
General Motors' Firebird II was described as having an
"electronic brain" that allowed it to move into a lane with a metal
conductor and follow it along.
An autonomous car,[1] also known as a driverless car,[2] self-driving car[3] and robotic car,[4] is an automated or autonomous vehiclecapable
of fulfilling the main transportation capabilities of a traditional car. As an
autonomous vehicle, it is capable of sensing its environment and navigating
without human input. Robotic cars exist mainly as prototypes and demonstration
systems. As of 2014, the only self-driving vehicles that are commercially
available are open-air shuttles for pedestrian zones that operate at 12.5 miles
per hour (20.1 km/h).[5]
Autonomous vehicles sense their surroundings with such techniques as radar, lidar, GPS, and computer vision. Advanced control systems interpret
sensory information to identify appropriate navigation paths, as well as
obstacles and relevant signage.[6][7] By definition,
autonomous vehicles are capable of updating
their maps based on sensory input, allowing the vehicles to keep
track of their position even when conditions change or when they enter
uncharted environments.[citation
needed]
Some demonstrative systems, precursory to autonomous cars, date back to the
1920s and 30s. The first self-sufficient (and therefore, truly autonomous) cars
appeared in the 1980s, with Carnegie Mellon University's Navlab and ALV projects in 1984 and Mercedes-Benzand Bundeswehr University
Munich's EUREKA Prometheus Project in 1987. Since then, numerous major companies and
research organizations have developed working prototype autonomous vehicles.
Contents
Definition
Autonomous means having the power for
self-government.[8] Many historical
projects related to vehicle autonomy have in fact only been automated (made to be automatic) due to a heavy
reliance on artificial hints in their environment, such as magnetic strips.
Autonomous control implies good performance under significant uncertainties in
the environment for extended periods of time and the ability to compensate for
system failures without external intervention.[8] As can be seen
from many projects mentioned, it is often suggested to extend the capabilities
of an autonomous car by implementing communication networks both in the
immediate vicinity (for collision avoidance) and far away (for congestion
management). By bringing in these outside influences in the decision process,
some would no longer regard the car's behaviour or capabilities as autonomous;
for example Wood et al. (2012) writes "This Article generally uses the
term "autonomous," instead of the term "automated." We have
chosen to use the term "autonomous" because it is the term that is
currently in more widespread use (and thus is more familiar to the general
public). However, the latter term is arguably more accurate.
"Automated" connotes control or operation by a machine, while
"autonomous" connotes acting alone or independently. Most of the
vehicle concepts (that we are currently aware of) have a person in the driver’s
seat, utilize a communication connection to the Cloud or other vehicles, and do
not independently select either destinations or routes for reaching them. Thus,
the term "automated" would more accurately describe these vehicle
concepts".[9]
In the United States, the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has proposed a formal classification system:[10]
·
Level 0: The driver
completely controls the vehicle at all times.
·
Level 1: Individual
vehicle controls are automated, such as electronic
stability control or automatic braking.
·
Level 2: At least two
controls can be automated in unison, such as adaptive cruise
control in combination
with lane keeping.
·
Level 3: The driver can
fully cede control of all safety-critical functions in certain conditions. The
car senses when conditions require the driver to retake control and provides a
"sufficiently comfortable transition time" for the driver to do so.
·
Level 4: The vehicle
performs all safety-critical functions for the entire trip, with the driver not
expected to control the vehicle at any time. As this vehicle would control all
functions from start to stop, including all parking functions, it could include
unoccupied cars.
An alternative classification system based on five different levels
(ranging from driver assistance to fully automated systems) has been published
by SAE, an automotive standardisation body.[11]
History
The RRL's
modified 1960 Citroen DS19 to
be automatically controlled at theScience Museum,
London.
Experiments have been conducted on automating cars since at least the 1920s;[12] promising trials
took place in the 1950s and work has proceeded since then. The first
self-sufficient and truly autonomous cars appeared in the 1980s, with Carnegie Mellon University'sNavlab[13] and ALV[14][15] projects in 1984
and Mercedes-Benz and Bundeswehr University
Munich's EUREKA Prometheus Project [16] in 1987. Since
then, numerous major companies and research organizations have developed
working prototype autonomous vehicles. including Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, Continental
Automotive Systems, IAV, Autoliv Inc., Bosch, Nissan, Renault, Toyota, Audi,Volvo, Peugeot, AKKA
Technologies, Vislab from University of Parma, Oxford University and Google.[16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] In July 2013,
Vislab demonstrated BRAiVE, a vehicle that moved autonomously on a mixed
traffic route open to public traffic.[25] As of 2013, four
U.S. states have passed laws permitting autonomous cars: Nevada, Florida, California, and Michigan.[26][27][28][29][30]
In Europe, cities in Belgium, France, Italy and the UK are planning to
operate transport systems for driverless cars,[31][32][33] and Germany, the
Netherlands, and Spain have allowed testing robotic cars in traffic. In 2015,
the UK Government launched public trials of the LUTZ Pathfinder driverless pod in Milton Keynes.[34]
Potential
advantages
An increase in the use of autonomous cars would make possible such benefits
as:
·
Fewer traffic collisions, due to an autonomous
system's increased reliability and faster reaction time compared to human
drivers.[35]
·
Increased roadway capacity and reduced traffic congestion due to reduced need for safety gaps[36][37] and the ability
to better manage traffic flow.[35]
·
Removal of constraints on occupants' state – in an
autonomous car, it would not matter if the occupants were under
age, over age,[39] unlicensed,
blind, distracted, intoxicated, or otherwise impaired.
·
Alleviation of parking scarcity, as cars could drop off
passengers, park far away where space is not scarce, and return as needed to
pick up passengers.
·
Elimination of redundant passengers – the robotic car
could drive unoccupied to wherever it is required, such as to pick up
passengers or to go in for maintenance. This would be especially relevant to
trucks, taxis and car-sharing services.[37][41][42]
·
Reduction of physical road signage – autonomous cars
could receive necessary communication electronically (although physical signs
may still be required for any human drivers).[44][45][46]
Potential
obstacles
In spite of the various benefits to increased vehicle automation, some
foreseeable challenges persist:
·
A car's computer could potentially be compromised, as
could a communication system between cars.[53][54]
·
Implementation of legal framework and establishment of
government regulations for self-driving cars.[55]
·
Ethical problems analogous to the trolley problem arise in situations where an
autonomous car's software is forced during an unavoidable crash to choose
between multiple harmful courses of action.[62][63][64]
·
Susceptibility of the car's navigation system to
different types of weather. (As of 2014 Google's prototype has not driven in
snow or heavy rain.) [65]
·
Autonomous cars may require very high-quality specialised
maps to operate properly. Where these maps may be out of date, they would need
to be able to fall back to reasonable behaviors.[65]
·
Current police and other pedestrian gestures and
non-verbal cues are not adapted to autonomous driving.[65]
·
Current road infrastructure may need changes for autonomous
cars to function optimally. Some examples include, traffic and street light
upgrades that communicate with autonomous vehicles.[66]
Policy
implications
If fully autonomous cars become commercially available they have the
potential to be a disruptive innovation with major implications for society. The likelihood of
widespread adoption is still unclear, but if they are used on a wide scale
policy makers face a number of unresolved questions about their effects.[66] One fundamental
question is about their effect on travel behaviour. Some people believe that
they will increase car ownership and car use because it will become easier to
use them and they will ultimately be more useful.[66] This may in turn
encourage urban sprawl and ultimately total private vehicle use. Others argue
that it will be easier to share cars and that this will thus discourage
outright ownership and decrease total usage, and make cars more efficient forms
of transportation in relation to the present situation.[68]
Legislation
]
U.S. States that allow driverless
cars public road testing.
In the United States, state vehicle codes generally do not envisage — but
do not necessarily prohibit — highly automated vehicles.[69] To clarify the
legal status of and otherwise regulate such vehicles, several states have
enacted or are considering specific laws.[70] As of the end of
2013, four U.S. states, (Nevada, Florida, California, and Michigan), along with
the District of Columbia,
have successfully enacted laws addressing autonomous vehicles.
In June 2011, the Nevada Legislature passed a law to authorize the use of autonomous cars.
Nevada thus became the first jurisdiction in the world where autonomous
vehicles might be legally operated on public roads. According to the law, the Nevada
Department of Motor Vehicles (NDMV) is responsible for setting safety and performance
standards and the agency is responsible for designating areas where autonomous
cars may be tested.[27][28][71] This legislation
was supported by Google in an effort to legally conduct further testing of itsGoogle driverless car.[29] The Nevada law
defines an autonomous vehicle to be "a motor vehicle that uses artificial
intelligence, sensors and global positioning system coordinates to drive itself
without the active intervention of a human operator." The law also
acknowledges that the operator will not need to pay attention while the car is
operating itself. Google had further lobbied for an exemption from a ban on
distracted driving to permit occupants to send text messages while sitting behind the wheel, but this did not become
law.[29][72][73] Furthermore,
Nevada's regulations require a person behind the wheel and one in the
passenger’s seat during tests.[74]
A Toyota Prius modified
by Google to operate as a driverless car.
In 2013, the government
of the United Kingdom permitted the
testing of autonomous cars on public roads.[75] Prior to this,
all testing of robotic vehicles in the UK had been conducted on private
property.[75]
In 2014 the Government of France announced that testing of autonomous cars on public roads
would be allowed in 2015. 2000 km of road would be opened through the
national territory, especially in Bordeaux, in Isère, Île-de-France and
Strasbourg.
Vehicular
communication systems
Main article: Vehicular
communication systems
Individual vehicles may benefit from information obtained from other
vehicles in the vicinity, especially information relating to traffic congestion
and safety hazards. Vehicular communication systems use vehicles and roadside
units as the communicating nodes in a
peer-to-peer network, providing each other with information. As a cooperative
approach, vehicular communication systems can allow all cooperating vehicles to
be more effective. According to a 2010 study by the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration, vehicular communication systems could help avoid up to
79 percent of all traffic accidents.[1]
In 2012, computer scientists at the University of Texas in Austin began
developing smart intersections designed for autonomous cars. The intersections
will have no traffic lights and no stop signs, instead using computer programs
that will communicate directly with each car on the road.[76]
Public opinion
surveys
In a 2011 online survey of 2,006 US and UK consumers by Accenture, 49% said
they would be comfortable using a "driverless car".[77]
A 2012 survey of 17,400 vehicle owners by J.D. Power and Associates found
37% initially said they would be interested in purchasing a fully autonomous
car. However, that figure dropped to 20% if told the technology would cost
$3,000 more.[78]
In a 2012 survey of about 1,000 German drivers by automotive researcher
Puls, 22% of the respondents had a positive attitude towards these cars, 10%
were undecided, 44% were skeptical and 24% were hostile.[79]
A 2013 survey of 1,500 consumers across 10 countries by Cisco Systems found 57% "stated they would be likely to ride in a
car controlled entirely by technology that does not require a human
driver", with Brazil, India and China the most willing to trust autonomous
technology.[80]
In a 2014 US telephone survey by Insurance.com, over three-quarters of
licensed drivers said they would at least consider buying a self-driving car,
rising to 86% if car insurance were cheaper. 31.7% said they would not continue
to drive once an autonomous car was available instead.[81]
In a February 2015 survey of top auto journalists, 46% predict that either
Tesla or Daimler will be the first to the market with a fully autonomous
vehicle, while (at 38%) Daimler is predicted to be the most functional, safe,
and in-demand autonomous vehicle.[82]
In 2015 a questionnaire survey by Delft University of Technology explored
the opinion of 5,000 people from 109 countries on automated driving. Results
showed that respondents, on average, found manual driving the most enjoyable
mode of driving. 22% of the respondents did not want to spend any money for a fully
automated driving system, whereas 5% indicated they would be willing to pay
more than $30,000, and 33% indicated that fully automated driving would be
highly enjoyable. 69% of respondents estimated that fully automated driving
will reach a 50% market share between now and 2050. Respondents were found to
be most concerned about software hacking/misuse, and were also concerned about
legal issues and safety. Finally, respondents from more developed countries (in
terms of lower accident statistics, higher education, and higher income) were
less comfortable with their vehicle transmitting data.[83]
Predictions
Autonomous vehicles are still a developing technology; a large number of
companies and researchers have speculated about future developments and the
possible effects of the cars.
·
By 2016, Mercedes plans to introduce "Autobahn
Pilot" aka Highway Pilot, the system allows hands-free highway driving
with autonomous overtaking of other vehicles.[84]
·
By early 2017, the US Department of Transportation hopes
to publish a rule mandating vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication by an as-yet
unspecified deadline.[86] GM says that by
the 2017 model year, the Cadillac CTS will be V2V equipped.[87]
·
By 2018, Nissan anticipates to have a feature that can
allow the vehicle manoeuver its way on multi-lane highways.[89]
·
By 2020, Volvo envisages having cars in which passengers
would be immune from injuries.[90] Volvo also
claims vehicles will effectively be "crash free." [91]
·
By 2020, GM, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Nissan, BMW, Renault, Tesla and Google all expect to sell
vehicles that can drive themselves at least part of the time.[60][92][93][94][95][96][97]
·
2020, ABI Research forecasts that truly self-driving cars
would become a reality by 2020 and that 10 million such new cars would be
rolling out on to United States' public highways every year by 2032.[98]
·
By 2020, Google autonomous car project head's goal to
have all outstanding problems with the autonomous car be resolved.[99][100]
·
By 2025, Daimler and Ford expect autonomous vehicles on
the market.[102][103] Ford predicts it
will have the first mass-market autonomous vehicle, but released no target date
for this.[104]
·
By 2025, most new GM vehicles will have automated driving
functions as well as vehicle-to-vehicle communication technology.[105]
·
By 2035, IHS Automotive report says will be the year most
self-driving vehicles will be operated completely independently from a human
occupant’s control.[106]
·
By 2035, Navigant Research forecasts that autonomous
vehicles will gradually gain traction in the market over the coming two decades
and by 2035, sales of autonomous vehicles will reach 95.4 million annually,
representing 75% of all light-duty vehicle sales.[107]
·
By 2040, expert members of the Institute of Electrical
and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) have estimated that up to 75% of all vehicles
will be autonomous.[108]
With Autonomous vehicles,
·
Columbia University's
The Earth Institute forecasts the reduction of United States' fleet of vehicles
by a factor of 10.[109]
·
PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts a reduction of traffic
accidents by a factor of 10 and it concludes that the fleet of vehicles in the
United States may collapse from 245 million to just 2.4 million.[110]
·
KPMG LLP and the Center for Automotive Research (CAR)
foresee improvements in productivity and energy efficiency as well as new
business models.[111]
·
Morgan Stanley estimates that autonomous cars could
save the United States $1.3 trillion annually by lowering fuel consumption
($169 billion), reducing crash costs ($488 billion) and boosting productivity
($645 billion).[112]
In
fiction
In film and television
·
Dudu, a VW Beetle,
features in a 1971 to 1978 German series of movies similar to Disneys Herbie but
with an electronic brain.
·
KITT, the Pontiac Trans Am in the 1982 TV
series Knight Rider,
was sentient and autonomous.
·
The 1983 film Christine features a sentient, autonomous car as
the title character.
·
In the 1988 film Who Framed Roger
Rabbit, starring Bob Hoskins, the character Benny the Cab, a sentient taxicab, drives on
his own.
·
In the 1989 film Batman,
starring Michael Keaton, the Batmobile is
shown to be able to drive to Batman's current location with some navigation commands
from Batman and possibly some autonomy.
·
The 1990 film Total Recall,
starring Arnold Schwarzenegger,
features taxis called Johnny Cabs controlled by artificial intelligence
in the car or the android occupants.
·
The 1993 film Demolition Man,
starring Sylvester Stallone and set in 2032, features vehicles
that can be self-driven or commanded to "Auto Mode" where a
voice-controlled computer operates the vehicle.
·
The 1994 film Timecop, starring Jean-Claude Van Damme,
set in 2004 and 1994, has autonomous cars.
·
Another Arnold Schwarzenegger movie, The 6th Day from 2000, features an autonomous car
commanded by Michael Rapaport.
·
The 2002 film Minority Report,
set in Washington, D.C. in 2054, features an extended chase
sequence involving autonomous cars. The vehicle of protagonist John Anderton is
transporting him when its systems are overridden by police in an attempt to
bring him into custody.
·
The 2004 film I, Robot, set in Chicago in
2035, features autonomous vehicles driving on highways, allowing the car to
travel safer at higher speeds than if manually controlled. The option to
manually operate the vehicles is available.
·
"Driven", series 4 episode 11 of the 2006 TV
series NCIS features
a robotic vehicle named "Otto," part of a high-level project of the
Department of Defense, which causes the death of a Navy Lieutenant, and then
later almost kills Abby.
·
The éX-Driver anime series features autonomous
electric-powered vehicles driven by Artificial Intelligences (AIs). These
sometimes malfunction or are taken over by malicious users, requiring
interception and intervention by éX-Drivers operating manually controlled
gas-powered vehicles.
In literature
·
Intelligent or self-driving cars are a common theme in science fiction novels, including Peter F. Hamilton's Commonwealth Saga andAlastair Reynolds' Revelation Space series.
·
In "Sally"
(first published May–June 1953), a short story by science fiction writer Isaac
Asimov, autonomous cars have "positronic brains" and communicate via
honking horns and slamming doors, and save their human caretaker.
·
In the Geronimo Stilton series, a robotic vehicle called
"Solar" is in the fifty-fourth book.
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